Model read · GB

Ascot 2:20

The Algohorse model's verdict on this 8-runner race — probabilities, value vs the market, and the standout.

MODEL VERDICT
Sorrengail
46.3% to place · best value: Parvenue Star

The model makes Sorrengail its standout in this 8-runner Ascot contest, rating it 46.3% to place and 12.1% to win. But it's a competitive heat: only 1.0 points cover the front two, and the model's shortlist to place is tight — Sorrengail (46.3%), Ash Tree (45.3%), Blue Flight (41.0%). On price, though, the market is shorter than the model (42.4% implied at 2.36) — the fancied runner looks fully priced, so any value lies elsewhere in the race. The published Algohorse selection is Sorrengail (NEXT BEST), to be backed place.

The standout

RunnerPlace %Win %PriceValue
Sorrengail46.3%12.1%2.36-30.2pp
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