The early price, and how long it lasts
Most services tell you which horse. We tell you a price before the market moves to it — and we're the only ones who have measured how long you have to take it.
The one-sentence version
The board moves toward our model between publish and the off — so the price on the card in the morning is usually better than the price at the off. That is worth money only if you can actually get it, so we measured that too.
How long our price survives
We took 440 published tips and followed each one's price from the moment we registered it. "Still available" means at least one of the bookmakers we quote was still at or above our registered price.
So the instruction is not a slogan, it is a measurement: get on within fifteen minutes and you get our price nine times out of ten; wait an hour and it is three times in four.
And it goes fastest on the ones that mattered
Split those tips by whether they went on to beat the closing price. On the ones that did, barely half the registered price survives two hours. On the ones that did not, 84% of it does.
| Tips that… | 30 min | 1 hour | 2 hours |
|---|---|---|---|
| went on to beat the close | 75% | 64% | 55% |
| did not | 87% | 85% | 84% |
That is the whole product in one table. Dithering does not cost you a little bit everywhere — it costs you specifically on the selections that were worth having.
What CLV is, and why we still grade against it
Closing Line Value is whether the price you took beat the price the market settled at. Back a horse at 4.0, it starts at 3.0, you beat the close — whether or not it won. Strike rate and profit can be cherry-picked or quietly reset after a bad month; CLV cannot, because it requires a price registered before the off and compares it to a public closing price anyone can check.
So CLV is our yardstick. Every tip is logged at the price available before the race and compared to the starting price, with sample sizes and confidence intervals, and the result is published on our record alongside the return.
What we are not claiming
We are not claiming our model beats the closing price — our own testing says it does not, and you will not find that claim anywhere on this site. It beats the morning market, which is a smaller and more specific thing. Nor does a shortening price mean a horse places: those are two different claims and only the second one pays. Our record is published in full, including the return, and it is currently negative. See the record →
See the model in action
Start free and get a model tip a day — registered before the off, with the price and how long it lasted.