A NAP is a tipster's single most confident selection of the day — the one they'd back above all others. That is what the word means. Whether it should be your one bet is a separate question, and on our own record the answer is no — see below.
Where the term comes from
It's borrowed from the card game Napoleon, where calling "nap" means betting you'll win every trick — the boldest call in the game. Racing adopted it for a tipster's strongest pick.
NAP vs Next Best vs Speculative
Most tipping services tier their selections by confidence, and we do publish three labels that the model's probabilities drive:
- NAP — the model's top-rated selection of the day.
- Next Best — selections just below it.
- Speculative — bigger-priced plays further down the rating.
What our own record says about the tiers
Here is the part most services leave out. On our published record the tiers have not separated in outcome. The NAP is not the better bet — if anything it has returned slightly worse than the Speculative selections. So treat the labels as categories describing where a selection sits in the rating, not as a ranking of how much to stake on it.
We keep saying it because it is true and it costs us something to say: "if you only had one bet, make it the NAP" is the single most common line in tipping, and our data does not support it. The figures, by tier, are on our record.
How to use it
A NAP is the model's top read, not a certainty — even strong selections lose regularly, and a single day tells you nothing. What matters is the process over a large sample, and the one thing we can demonstrate is that our registered price beats the market's later price, and how long you have to take it. See today's free NAP.